OpenAI made a lot of noise with the release of ChatGPT. It certainly is something that is rather impressive. However, whatever dystopian ideas people are promoting, it is still rather limited. That does not mean we are not right to be careful with our trek down this path. We ultimately could be making something that is extremely dangerous to humanity.
In the meantime, we will watch AI take jobs. This is something that is long forecasts, and I believe has happened. Many futurists will claim that technology always created more jobs than it destroyed. On this I call "bullsh*t".
We have used this chart before yet it really does tell the story. The last 20 years were the most advanced in human history. This at a time when the GDP of the United State skyrockets.
Here is a 50 year view to put it all in context.
The labor force participation rate peaked in 2000. Yet the GDP of the country kept growing at a consistent rate. To me, this proves the idea a fallacy.
This is what technology does. It increases economic output while decreasing the need for labor (i.e. people).
Robo-Lawyer
It looks like all those years spent on law school is going to be nothing more than a pursuit in acquiring debt.
History is about to be made when the first robo-lawyer takes to court.
Fortunately, this is not a capital murder case. It is a dispute over a traffic ticket. Hence, the stakes aren't as high as one would think.
Nevertheless, from a technological standpoint, this is a huge test. Can AI operate in the real world, in real time? Of course, many will be watching to see what else is possible.
Here is how it works:
Joshua Browder, CEO of DoNotPay, said the company's AI-creation runs on a smartphone, listens to court arguments and formulates responses for the defendant. The AI lawyer tells the defendant what to say in real-time, through headphones.
What is the law? Isn't nothing more than information assimilated in a proper order and presented? Certainly, there is something to be said for the courtroom manner of some top attornies. They know how to read the situation, like a jury, and do have talents above just the knowledge of the law.
However, this is not the norm. Most cases are rather humdrum, filled with information and precedent. Here is where a robo-lawyer could be even more valuable.
Of course, we have to acknowledge we are dealing with low hanging fruit on this one. Traffic court isn't the most exciting, nor the most detailed. Again, this is what we are seeing with AI; the taking over of the easy stuff.
One thing is also for certain: as time passes the technology gets better. Just look at the different iterations of GPT.
The Decade Of Job Destruction
We can see how AI could do a lot of things better than many humans. Are they cut out for every situation? Of course not. Nevertheless, as these systems get better, it stands to reason the "hive mind" of all this will only improve.
For example, we covered robo-surgeons about a year or so ago. That is the idea of robots doing surgery. While this could cause one to step back, when we think it through, there is a lot of sense to this.
If the "touch" is there, we know the robot can bring consistency to the table. It is why robots took over the assemly lines. When a rivet needs to be bolted in the same place on ever vehicle, a robot can do it consistently for 12-16 hours per day.
Also, we cannot overlook the cloud mind behind something like this. How many surgeries does a doctor do? Perhaps 2 a day, which equates to 10 per week. Over the course of a career, that might equate to 15K surgeries. Of course, when the person retires, all those surgeries exit too.
With a cloud mind, the machine learning engine is constantly being fed. So every surgery is in its database. Over time, as more surgeries take place, the system can do tens of thousands, in a year. No longer is the system dependent upon individuals. The entire system has the knowledge base.
These are just some of the possibilities. We are still a long way from a lot of this occurring in everyday life. However, do not be surprised if the traffic ticket robo-lawyer sees its skills upgraded. Maybe capital murder will always be out of reach but perhaps the next step might be property disputes.
AI is going to wipe out a ton of jobs. This is something that humanity is not prepared for.
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